Reddick had a great fourth-place run at Bristol last fall and was fantastic in his most recent two Xfinity Series races there (finishing second and first, respectively). So although he finished fifth at the Night Race last fall, I don’t feel good enough about his team’s overall season to think they can go do the same thing.Īnd that leaves Bowman as the last one out.
McDowell is the obvious one, as he’s in a must-win scenario and isn’t going to just suddenly go pull out a victory at the Night Race.Īnd I’m with you on Byron unfortunately, the hole is just too big to reasonably overcome when a driver doesn’t have a ton of Bristol success.Īlmirola has the worst average finish of any playoff driver at Bristol over the last five races.
Gluck: There’s really not enough evidence to make a case for other drivers. But unfortunately, I feel the same way about all four picks. Gluck: Argh! There’s really nothing worse than agreeing with you instead of getting to argue.
But considering how well Busch does at Bristol (six career wins, second most among active drivers) plus how much speed Chip Ganassi Racing has had in its cars lately, it makes it easy to think Busch knocks out Bowman. The last elimination comes down to Bowman vs. Aric Almirola (50-to-1) is out due to Tyler Reddick (33-to-1) having a strong night where he leaps ahead of Almirola in the standings. Byron is also out because while 18 points isn’t an insurmountable deficit, it’s still sizable and he would also need some luck. He needs a win to advance and that isn’t going to happen. That said, who are your four picks to be eliminated after Saturday night’s race? Who will be eliminated?īianchi: Michael McDowell (500-to-1) is out, for sure. But I feel slightly better about his chances in that if he just gets a decent run, there’s a 50-50 chance someone above him could crash or get taken out by some sort of incident, which would plummet them down in the standings. Given he’ll probably have to win to advance, that doesn’t inspire much optimism.īowman has never led a lap at Bristol and has two top-10s in six races with Hendrick. Gluck: Byron only has one top-15 finish in six career starts at Bristol, and his average finish of 20.7 there places it among his worst tracks.
There’s a scenario where one could move forward, but two is very unlikely. Looking at the standings combined with past performances at Bristol, it’s hard to see a realistic path where both Byron and Bowman don’t get eliminated Saturday night. It’s further proof of how unpredictable and often volatile this playoff format can be.
And now there stands a good chance that two Hendrick drivers are bounced after Round 1. So what do you think will happen at Bristol with Alex Bowman (22-to-1 odds on BetMGM - see all the updated odds here), who is tied for the last spot, and William Byron (also 22-to-1), who is 18 points out?īianchi: Two weeks ago, there was talk of whether Hendrick would have multiple drivers advance to the Championship 4. I doubt many people would have thought two Hendrick Motorsports drivers could be out after three races - or even one Hendrick driver, for that matter. It’s already the end of Round 1, and there are some interesting and surprising names in jeopardy of failing to advance. The Athletic’s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi share their thoughts about what will happen in Tennessee on Saturday night. With the elimination race for the first round of NASCAR’s Cup Series playoffs approaching on Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway, there’s still much left to be determined about the remaining field and who might win one of the most prestigious races.